The balance of power in the House currently stands at 211 Republicans and 199 Democrats — but, functionally, it’s more closely divided. The list of uncalled races includes two California contests where both general-election candidates are Democrats. And allocating the dozen races where one party is significantly favored — but where The AP hasn’t made a call — adds eight seats to the Democratic Party’s tally, and four races to Republicans’.
That would put Republicans at 215 seats, just three seats away from the majority, while Democrats would be nine seats short. But with 11 seats in doubt — six with Republicans leading, and five where Democrats are ahead — both parties still have a shot, though the GOP is still favored.
Here is a district-by-district breakdown of the uncalled races as of Saturday afternoon, and what could happen next:
UP-FOR-GRAB RACES — 11 TOTAL, WITH GOP LEADING 6-5
Arizona-01 (Pre-Nov. 8 POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean Republican): GOP Rep. David Schweikert is trailing Democrat Jevin Hodge by 4,000 votes. Maricopa County, which includes the entire district, is set to release more votes later Saturday, which could help Schweikert given the state’s trend toward a “red shift” later in the count.
Arizona-06 (Lean Republican): Republican Juan Ciscomani holds only a narrow lead over Democrat Kirsten Engel — about 2,900 votes — in a race that has narrowed significantly since Election Day. It’s not clear whether the remaining votes in Pima County (Tucson) will help Engel close the gap completely.
California-13 (Lean Republican): This one looks like a nail-biter: Republican John Duarte leads Democrat Adam Gray by 84 votes as of Saturday afternoon, with only 61 percent of the ballots tallied, according to The Associated Press.
California-22 (Toss Up): Is it déjà vu for Rep. David Valadao? The California Republican was so far ahead of his Democratic opponent on election night in 2018 that The AP declared him the winner — only to retract the call when Valadao fell behind weeks later. This time, Valadao (who eventually returned to Congress after winning in 2020) leads Democrat Rudy Salas by 5 points, but that’s already down from 8 points on Tuesday night.
California-41 (Lean Republican): GOP Rep. Ken Calvert leads Democrat Will Rollins by about 2,100 votes in the Inland Empire, but it’s not clear how the late-counted ballots will break.
California-47 (Lean Democratic): Democratic Rep. Katie Porter leads Republican Scott Baugh by 2 percentage points, as late-arriving ballots in Orange County have helped extend what was an extremely narrow lead on Election Day.
California-49 (Toss Up): Democratic Rep. Mike Levin has opened up a 4-point lead over Republican Brian Maryott.
Colorado-03 (Likely Republican): GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert is up by about 1,100 votes over Democrat Adam Frisch. Frisch needs to eat into Boebert’s advantage in the final ballots to have a shot to surpass her in the likely recount, which will occur if the two candidates finish within half a percentage point of each other (Boebert currently leads by 0.4 points).
New York-22 (Toss Up): Republican Brandon Williams is nearly 4,000 votes ahead of Democrat Francis Conole, who is hoping that still-to-be-counted absentee ballots in Syracuse are enough to push him over the top.
Oregon-06 (Toss Up): Democrat Andrea Salinas is 4,000 votes ahead of Republican Mike Erickson, with 79 percent of precincts reporting.
Washington-03 (Lean Republican): Joe Kent, the Donald Trump-endorsed candidate who knocked out GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in the top-two primary back in August, is at risk of losing the seat for Republicans. Kent trails Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by around 5,000 votes, but just 70 percent of the ballots are counted.